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DWS Smiles On Healthcare, Gold
Amanda Cheesley
30 October 2024
Björn Jesch at believes that the outlook for international equity markets is relatively positive, amidst high geopolitical risks. "We have raised our price targets for most of the equity markets since we expect corporate profits to rise by 5 to 10 per cent in the 12 months to come," Jesch (pictured) said in a note. “Whether the situation in 12 months’ time will be in line with our forecast, will largely depend on US developments,” he added. "Our base scenario is a soft landing of the US economy, gradually gearing up again afterwards," he continued. However, Jesch believes that there are three prerequisites for this positive outlook to materialise. “First, consumer sentiment must improve after the US presidential election. Second, the rate-cutting cycle of the US Federal Reserve must not fuel inflationary fears. Third, corporations which are currently investing huge amounts in artificial intelligence, must not suffer any major setbacks but rather gradually establish high-margin business models,” he said. “Probably the biggest – and at the same time the hardest to forecast – risk factors are geopolitical factors, particularly the highly explosive situation in the Middle East.” Despite the massive stimulus measures recently announced by the Chinese government, which boosted prices on the local stock exchanges, Jesch is sceptical that they will have a permanent positive effect on global stock markets. “China continues to be hampered by the real-estate crisis and weak domestic demand, exporting its over-production to Europe and the US,” he said. John Woods, chief investment officer, Asia, and senior macro strategist, Homin Lee at Swiss private bank , a Rotterdam-headquartered asset manager, has recently increased his exposure to gold through the purchase of exchange-traded commodity (ETC) derivatives and by holding the equities of gold miners. Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at also continues to like oil and gold as effective portfolio hedges amid market uncertainties. See more commentary here.